Economic model sees coal in our future

While looking over a journal article for another class I realized that the content is extremely relevant to the topic of fuel balance. The article, “Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation” can be found in the journal Energy Policy. This article discusses the economics behind increasing oil prices and the potential increase in renewable energy investment and production that can result. The researcher sees two main possibilities occurring in the face of rising hydrocarbon prices, either we begin using more coal which will increase our CO2 emissions, or we will use coal with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), nuclear and wind power. The primary force driving these outcomes in the model is the factor of climate policy. The researcher models three scenarios, one in which oil and natural gas prices are at the low end of future estimates, one in the middle and one at the high end. These prices drive our decision making, and as such our primary method for mitigating CO2 emissions will be natural gas with CSS if prices remain low, but without strong climate policy, our energy supplies will come largely from coal which would greatly increase CO2 emissions. Thus climate policy can balance out the economic forces that would drive us toward using huge amounts of coal in the future. By supporting climate policy such as the efforts to implement a cap and trade system, you can help to guide the economic forces towards investment in renewable energy and reduction of CO2 though mitigation of coal consumption.  


-Damen King  


PSU students can get the article here: http://www.sciencedirect.com.proxy.lib.pdx.edu/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V2W-4WNPDP0-2&_user=1694017&_coverDate=11/30/2009&_rdoc=1&_fmt=full&_orig=search&_cdi=5713&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_acct=C000054237&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=1694017&md5=b838f802919c6e9e2f77957cded306a9#secx6