Among the many factors that shape our weather in the Northwest, one stands out: the trade winds from the Pacific Ocean. Depending on their strength as they blow from west to east along the equator, these winds can herald a year of either higher-than-normal drought or rain, known as El Niño or La Niña. El Niño, according to Climate.gov, is generally associated with increased temperatures and precipitation across the US during the cold half of the year (October through March). In the summer to fall, El Niño typically results in higher temperatures but decreased precipitation, potentially increasing heat waves. Conversely, La Niña brings colder-than-average temperatures and increased precipitation during the cold half of the year while keeping temperatures cooler and precipitation lower from summer to fall.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, as of May 9, 2024, we are in an El Niño. This explains why the temperature on June 6 is higher than normal. If El Niño continues throughout the remaining year, we can expect higher temperatures and drier conditions. However, there is a significant chance (49% between June and August and 69% between July and September) of transitioning to La Niña, bringing cooler temperatures and increased precipitation later in the year.
These weather patterns have a profound impact on Portland’s homeless population. Higher temperatures and heatwaves during El Niño can exacerbate health risks for those without shelter, making access to cooling centers and water crucial. Conversely, the colder temperatures and increased precipitation of La Niña can increase the risk of hypothermia and other cold-related illnesses, highlighting the need for adequate shelter and warm clothing. Understanding these weather patterns helps us anticipate the challenges of Portland’s homeless community and underscores the importance of community support and resources to help them navigate these extreme conditions.
If the weather phenomena transition to La Niña, the homeless will be in danger of colder-than-normal temperatures later this year. We can use current weather analysis to prepare when we can hand out resources to the homeless. Multnomah County offers information on how to support people living outside during extreme colds. Please visit the site to find out what to do in case you find someone in need of support. https://www.multco.us/care-when-its-cold/severe-weather-and-homelessness
Sources:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=pqr
https://www.planetizen.com/news/2024/01/127117-portland-warming-shelters-close-despite-persistent-cold
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