We have all heard about Emissions and how they are
affecting the world around us. But, have you ever heard how individual
emissions change over a course of a lifetime?
According to a demographer at Max Planck Institute
for Demographic Research, " most projections of emissions take the
overall size of population into account, but not the age distribution.Yet,
changes in age structure might be relevant when predicting carbon emissions for
the future." To get these predictions we need to use the data on life
expectancy.
The average life expectancy in the United States is
expected to increase from 78 years today up to 83.1 in 2050. Knowing this will
help us focus on ages 2-83.1 when looking at future emissions of Co2.
As we look at the below graph, we see that the
emissions increased from age 10-60 then declined quickly. This means that as
Americans hit retirement, the carbon-producing peak started going down and as
they hit age 80 it had dropped even more.
This shows that as you get older and get a larger
income, you can buy bigger cars, travel more (cars/planes) and get bigger houses.
At a certain age, we see these trends shift. While older people may spend more
money, the outflow goes to different areas like health. Once at age 60, gas
consumption decreased and people spend more time at home. With this, more
electricity might be used and other household consumptions that make up for the
decrease in gas.
This model does not take into account any
future improvements in energy efficiency or emission controls. If and when we
see new systems developed, this could change the numbers in any age group.
Jaimie Butterfield
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